The Plight of North Dakota Ranchers

On a crisp Wednesday at Kist Livestock in Mandan, the auctioneer’s chant bounced off the sale ring as pens shuffled with red and black calves. Between runs, a Burleigh County rancher tugged his cap and put it plainly: “Feels like the sky is done falling.” The line drew a few nods from neighbors who, like him, watched prices slip from last year’s peaks and have been waiting for a floor.

After record-setting highs in 2023, cattle markets cooled through parts of 2024 as buyers recalibrated and consumers balked at higher beef prices, according to weekly reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service (USDA AMS). Northern Plains sales have since shown steadier bids this fall, with cash trade and feeder markets generally off the spring highs but no longer sliding week after week, USDA summaries indicate. For ranchers who pencil every load, even a pause in the descent changes how they plan winter feed and spring turnout.

The swings have been felt up and down the Missouri River. Families who delayed equipment purchases or culled deeper during drought say the volatility hit the checkbook and the nerves. “When the market moves five to ten percent in a month, it changes your marketing window,” one Morton County producer said at the barn. In a business built on thin margins and long horizons, steadier footing—even if off the peak—can mean the difference between holding back heifers or cashing them in.

The Economic Context Behind Cattle Prices

A mix of supply, demand and policy set the table. Drought-driven herd liquidation in 2021–22 tightened supplies and helped push prices to records in 2023, but a cooler consumer economy and packer margins trimmed bids in 2024, per the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed updates and wholesale beef reports (USDA NASS; USDA AMS). Feed costs eased with bigger corn and hay supplies, improving feedlot breakevens and encouraging heavier placements, which in turn took some heat out of feeder bids, North Dakota State University Extension has noted in recent outlooks (NDSU Extension).

Global currents matter here, too. A strong U.S. dollar, shifting export demand, and more boxed beef imports from Oceania influenced U.S. beef pricing, according to recent trade briefings from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS outlook). Meanwhile, closer to home, freight, labor and regional processing capacity continue to shape basis levels in the Northern Tier—factors ranchers in Burleigh and Morton counties have learned to watch as closely as the weather.

“This looks more like a consolidation than a crash,” said Tim Petry, emeritus livestock marketing economist with NDSU Extension, describing a market “transitioning from sharp year-over-year gains to more of a sideways pattern” in recent Extension commentary (NDSU Extension). He added that the next few USDA Cattle on Feed reports will be pivotal for price direction as the industry gauges heifer retention and winter feeding costs.

Human Stories of Adaptation and Resilience

Across the Bismarck-Mandan area, the response has been practical. Some ranchers locked in floors with Livestock Risk Protection insurance (LRP) while prices were still lofty, a tool that’s become more affordable under updated premium subsidies from the Risk Management Agency (USDA RMA LRP). Others spread out marketing—selling smaller drafts earlier—to manage cash flow and hedge against further dips. A few partnered with neighbors to consolidate trucking and negotiate better bids.

On the ranch, cost control has been the quiet hero. Producers leaned on cover crops and aftermath grazing to stretch hay, and many used the North Dakota Department of Agriculture’s Hay Hotline to source feed within driving distance when pastures ran short (NDDA Hay Hotline). “We’ve trimmed where we can and kept replacements we really believe in,” said a St. Anthony-area cow-calf operator. “If prices hold steady, we’ll keep that plan and invest in some fence and water when we can.”

Stability—even at a lower plateau—changes family decisions. Parents eyeing another semester at Bismarck State College for a son or daughter say a steadier calf check makes tuition and books a more confident yes. Church suppers, 4-H dues and the winter sports fund at local schools all feel the ripple when the market stops falling and people exhale.

Community and Political Responses

Local organizations have tried to meet the moment. The North Dakota Stockmen’s Association has been hosting market outlook and risk management sessions, urging members to blend LRP, forward contracts and seasonal marketing to reduce surprises (NDSA). The Bismarck-Mandan Chamber EDC’s ag committee has spotlighted freight and labor shortages in the region as key cost drivers for businesses tied to beef and feed, encouraging members to share data that can inform workforce grants and transportation planning (Chamber EDC).

State leaders point to a mix of short- and long-term tools. The Bank of North Dakota’s Ag PACE program continues to help buy down interest on qualifying ag investments, easing the sting of higher rates for necessary upgrades (BND Ag PACE). The North Dakota Department of Agriculture has supported small and mid-sized meat processors with grants since the pandemic—a capacity play that industry advocates say can strengthen regional price discovery and reduce bottlenecks (NDDA processing grants).

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” said Julie Ellingson, executive vice president of the North Dakota Stockmen’s Association, in a recent update to members, noting that producers still face high input costs and tight labor. At the federal level, county Farm Service Agency offices continue to enroll eligible producers in disaster and insurance programs, and the next farm bill’s timeline remains a watch item for ranch safety nets and conservation incentives (USDA Service Centers).

The Road Ahead for North Dakota Ranchers

Winter will test whether this apparent floor holds. Boxed beef values, holiday retail movement and January placements could set the tone into spring, according to recent USDA and land-grant outlooks (USDA AMS; NDSU Extension). If more heifers are retained, calf supplies could tighten again later, but near-term feed and credit costs will steer those choices.

Planning now, ranchers say they’ll keep a hand on the brake. Many are prioritizing cash flow, keeping cull lists current and staggering sales to avoid gluts. Others are investing in water and fence to add flexibility—small moves that compound when markets waver.

Helpful contacts and next steps for local producers:

• Kist Livestock Auction schedules and market reports: check sale dates and special feeder runs at kistlivestockauction.com

Livestock Risk Protection (LRP): visit your crop insurance agent or see USDA RMA LRP for coverage windows

Feed sourcing: use the North Dakota Hay Hotline to list or find hay

• USDA programs: find the Burleigh or Morton County FSA office via the USDA Service Center locator

What to Watch

• USDA Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports over the next two months for signals on placements, weights and beef movement.

• Local sale barn receipts and price spreads at Kist Livestock as winter weather and freight reshape bids across the Northern Plains.

• Any movement on farm bill timelines or state processing grants that could tweak risk tools and regional capacity for 2025.