The lawmaker’s warning lands as agencies run on contingency plans and North Dakotans brace for holiday-week disruptions.
A Shutdown Timeline That May Stretch Past Thanksgiving
With holiday travel plans already taking shape along the Missouri riverfront trail, a House Republican said the federal shutdown could extend “past Thanksgiving,” according to remarks relayed by Capitol Hill reporters on Tuesday. Agencies continue operating under contingency plans while Congress remains at an impasse, per the Office of Management and Budget’s published guidance for lapses in appropriations, which outlines which services continue and which pause during a shutdown, according to the OMB.
Initial reactions split quickly along party lines. Senate leaders pressed for a short-term funding bill to reopen agencies, while House conservatives signaled they want deeper spending cuts and policy riders before supporting any stopgap, according to Reuters. Offices for Sen. John Hoeven, Sen. Kevin Cramer, and Rep. Kelly Armstrong did not immediately respond to questions about the new prediction; the delegation has previously emphasized limiting spending while avoiding disruptions to core services in North Dakota.
How Previous Shutdowns Inform This One
The modern playbook for shutdowns is familiar. The federal government has experienced several gaps in funding in recent decades, including a 16-day shutdown in 2013 and the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018–2019—the longest on record—each rooted in disputes over appropriations and policy riders, according to the Congressional Research Service’s overview of shutdown causes and effects (CRS).
Economic costs tend to mount the longer the lapse lasts. After the 2018–2019 shutdown, the Congressional Budget Office estimated an $11 billion hit to GDP, with about $3 billion permanently lost due to delayed spending and reduced demand (CBO). While some activity rebounds when back pay arrives, contractors and small vendors often cannot recoup missed revenue, CBO noted.
There are differences now that shape the outlook. House leaders are openly discussing “laddered” or staggered funding deadlines to avoid a single cliff, a tactic used in late 2023 to keep parts of government open while negotiations continued, according to Reuters. That approach could dampen broad service disruptions but prolong uncertainty for specific agencies—especially those tied to contentious policy debates.
What It Means Nationally—and in North Dakota
Nationwide, shutdowns trigger furloughs for hundreds of thousands of civilian workers, delay some permits and grants, and limit services deemed non-essential, while operations like air traffic control and border security continue with employees working without pay until funding resumes, per OMB and a past services overview by Reuters. Direct health care continues at agencies like the Indian Health Service and the VA, but administrative functions can slow under contingency plans, according to HHS’s shutdown guidance (HHS).
A protracted lapse tends to ripple through agriculture, transportation, and tourism. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, farm loans and disaster assistance were delayed, and national park operations were curtailed—effects that can resurface when appropriations lapse, according to CRS and CBO.
Local impact: Bismarck, Burleigh County, and the Missouri River corridor
In and around Bismarck, federal employees and contractors support defense, veterans services, and agriculture programs. OPM’s workforce guidance notes that furloughed employees can consult their agency for status and benefits questions, while those working without pay will receive back pay once funding is enacted (OPM). Residents who rely on USDA programs should check their local Farm Service Agency office status; office availability may vary during a lapse (USDA FSA office locator).
Tourism and recreation face uncertainties if the shutdown lingers into late November. Theodore Roosevelt National Park and Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site will follow National Park Service contingency rules, which can include closed facilities and limited services during a lapse (NPS contingency; park updates: TRNP, Knife River). City-run amenities, including Bismarck Parks & Recreation facilities and the Missouri riverfront trail, are not directly subject to federal funding lapses; residents can monitor local operations through Bismarck Parks & Recreation and the City of Bismarck.
Local business groups report heightened uncertainty when federal contracting pauses or reimbursements lag. The Bismarck-Mandan Chamber EDC encourages members with federal ties to review cash-flow plans, stay in touch with contracting officers, and track federal announcements; members can find contact information and updates via the Bismarck-Mandan Chamber EDC. For travel and visitor impacts, North Dakota Tourism maintains updates on park access and seasonal events, including alternatives if federal sites reduce services (ND Tourism).
Strategies and Responses on Capitol Hill—and From North Dakota’s Delegation
Congressional leaders are weighing three main paths: a short-term continuing resolution to reopen the government while talks continue; a “laddered” CR to set multiple agency deadlines; or a broader deal that sets topline spending and addresses contested policy riders. Senate negotiators have pushed for a clean stopgap to stabilize services quickly, while House conservatives are pressing for deeper cuts and issue-specific provisions, according to ongoing coverage by Reuters.
North Dakota’s delegation has been central to debates over agriculture and defense priorities. Their offices did not immediately provide on-the-record reactions to the prediction that the shutdown could persist beyond Thanksgiving. In previous funding cycles, the state’s lawmakers have highlighted continuity for the military, border operations, and farm programs as priorities, while advocating for deficit reduction and regulatory changes—signals that will shape where they land in any compromise, based on prior statements and voting patterns summarized by CRS.
Legislatively, each week of delay compresses the calendar for high-stakes bills still in the pipeline. A sustained shutdown would collide with year-end work on defense authorization and appropriations, and could complicate farm and infrastructure program deadlines if agency backlogs grow, according to CBO and CRS.
Service Notes for Residents and Employers
Federal employees: Check your agency’s contingency plan and OPM’s furlough FAQ for pay, benefits, and leave details (OPM guidance).
Agriculture producers: Confirm hours and availability with your local FSA office; some services may be limited during the lapse (USDA FSA office locator).
Recreation and visitors: Review NPS site updates before traveling; city and county facilities remain open as posted (NPS contingency, TRNP, Bismarck Parks & Recreation).
Community assistance: For non-emergency support, dial 2-1-1 or visit North Dakota 211.
What to Watch
If House leaders pursue a “laddered” CR, expect rolling deadlines for different agencies into late November and December, a strategy that could keep some services open while prolonging uncertainty for others (Reuters).
Agencies will update contingency pages as conditions change; North Dakotans can monitor FSA office status, NPS site notices for Theodore Roosevelt National Park, and airport security wait times as the holiday period approaches.
The political signal in this House Republican’s prediction raises pressure on negotiators; watch for concrete topline spending numbers and whether policy riders are trimmed to secure a short-term reopening, as tracked by OMB and ongoing Hill coverage.
