On a recent dawn along the Missouri River, the grass at Sertoma Park wore its first brittle frost, and the city’s orange plows idled in a Public Works lot off Airport Road. The season’s quiet signal comes with a bigger headline this year: long-range forecasts tilt toward a colder, snowier winter across the Northern Plains, including Bismarck.
The practical takeaway: plan for higher heating use and more frequent plow days. That can mean setting aside a little extra in the household budget, getting furnaces tuned up early, and—at the city level—prepping crews and salt supplies for a busier stretch. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates elevated odds of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the northern tier this winter, a combination that often translates to more snow events for central North Dakota, according to the CPC’s seasonal outlooks and climatology NOAA CPC.
Chilly predictions for North Dakota
Forecasters frame seasonal outlooks in probabilities, not guarantees. For North Dakota, the CPC’s winter maps favor colder-than-normal conditions and a wetter pattern across much of the Northern Plains. In plain terms, the dice are loaded—modestly but meaningfully—toward more Arctic air intrusions and an active storm track. Local meteorologists in Bismarck note that those setups tend to bring frequent, lighter “clipper” snows punctuated by a few heavier systems when Gulf moisture connects with northern cold, based on National Weather Service discussions for our region NWS Bismarck.
Why it matters close to home: colder spells drive up heating demand, and more snow days strain everything from school schedules to small business staffing. City planners also watch these outlooks to sequence staffing, fuel contracts, and salt/sand purchasing. Even if any single month buckles warm, the season-long lean toward cold and snow can still push totals above normal.
What the numbers say
Bismarck’s 30-year climate normals (1991–2020) provide the baseline: roughly 50 inches of seasonal snowfall and average January temperatures hovering near the single digits to teens, according to National Weather Service climate data for Bismarck NWS Climate. When seasonal outlooks tip colder-and-wetter for the Northern Plains, the historical pattern for our area has often meant more frequent snow events and longer stretches below freezing.
Two climate drivers to watch help explain this winter’s setup:
ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation): A La Niña or neutral-leaning phase typically shifts the jet stream north and can favor colder, stormier conditions for the Upper Midwest, per NOAA’s seasonal diagnostics NOAA CPC.
Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation: Periods of negative AO/NAO open the door to Arctic air dropping south—short bursts that can quickly turn a month colder even if the overall season is near-normal NOAA.
Data callouts to frame expectations:
Seasonal baseline: About 50 inches of snow in Bismarck (1991–2020 normals, NWS).
Outlook signal: CPC maps favor below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the Northern Plains this winter (probabilistic categories generally range from 33% to 50% odds; see latest map for exact shading) NOAA CPC.
Translation: More days staying below freezing, with an uptick in plowable snow events versus a mild winter pattern.
Uncertainty remains part of the story. A few warm spells can claw back the monthly averages, and storm tracks can wobble a few hundred miles—meaning the difference between several inches of snow here or in South Dakota. Treat these outlooks as a heads-up, not a lock.
Preparing for winter's bite
Households have the most control before the first big storm. Start with heat: an annual furnace tune-up typically runs $80–$200, according to consumer cost averages compiled by home-service trackers such as Angi, and helps catch issues before deep cold arrives. Swapping a $10–$20 furnace filter, sealing window drafts with $5–$15 weatherstripping, and adding insulation in attics and rim joists are among the highest-value steps in cold climates, per the U.S. Department of Energy’s weatherization guidance DOE Energy Saver. If energy costs strain your budget, check eligibility for North Dakota’s Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) through the state Department of Health & Human Services; applications typically open ahead of peak winter ND HHS.
For city operations, Bismarck Public Works prioritizes emergency routes and school zones, then moves into residential areas as accumulations warrant—policies detailed on the city’s winter operations pages. Residents can help by moving vehicles off signed snow emergency routes when declared, keeping garbage and recycling containers off the street edge on plow days, and clearing sidewalk curb ramps for neighbors with mobility needs. Bookmark the city’s alerts and snow-removal information and sign up for notifications ahead of the first major event City of Bismarck.
On the financial side, give yourself margin. If you use natural gas or electric heat with Montana-Dakota Utilities or Capital Electric Cooperative, consider enrolling in budget billing to smooth spikes, and set a winter cushion equal to one extra month of your average utility bill in savings. It’s also smart to price-check ice melt (typically $12–$25 per 50-lb bag early season), inspect or tune snowblowers before parts run low, and keep a few contractor contacts handy in case of back-to-back storms. Small steps now beat scrambling during a cold snap.
Community voices on the ground
Across Bismarck-Mandan, winter stirs both concern and opportunity. Hardware and auto-care shops on Main Avenue and in north Bismarck often stock up on shovels, ice melt, wiper blades, and batteries ahead of a busy December—seasonal rhythms the Bismarck-Mandan Chamber EDC tracks as part of local retail cycles Chamber EDC. Small cafés downtown plan staffing for slower morning foot traffic on subzero days, then a lunchtime rush once plows clear the core. For construction trades, colder stretches may slow exterior work but open slots for interior jobs and energy-efficiency retrofits.
Neighbors also look out for one another. Older residents on the hills near Highland Acres and families along Riverside Park Drive often organize informal shoveling rotations or swap alerts in neighborhood Facebook groups. If you’re new to town or just moved across the river from Mandan, introducing yourself to a couple of nearby households—and swapping phone numbers—goes a long way when the first 8-inch overnight snow arrives.
Local energy providers and nonprofits, meanwhile, keep a close eye on assistance requests when cold snaps cluster. In addition to LIHEAP, check with Community Action Program offices and church-led aid networks for space heater safety checks, coats, or short-term utility help. The Downtowners and Chamber EDC often share business-hour changes and delivery options during heavy snow, keeping commerce moving even when roads get rutted Downtowners.
Looking ahead and staying informed
Trusted sources make winter simpler. For daily and short-fuse storm details, rely on the National Weather Service in Bismarck and its briefing pages, which summarize timing, snowfall ranges, wind, and travel impacts in plain language NWS Bismarck. For road conditions, use North Dakota’s 511 system and the North Dakota Department of Transportation’s travel maps and alerts—especially before heading west on I-94 or south on U.S. 83 NDDOT.
At the city level, follow Bismarck Public Works and Emergency Management for snow emergency declarations, parking restrictions, and route priorities. Burleigh County Emergency Management provides updates during prolonged cold snaps or blizzards. For the season-scale picture, check the CPC’s monthly updates; those maps refresh and may nudge odds as new data arrives NOAA CPC.
Quick prep checklist:
Schedule a furnace tune-up; replace filters and test CO/smoke alarms (Energy Saver guidance).
Build a car kit: blanket, booster cables, phone charger, shovel, sand/cat litter, snacks, and water (NDDOT winter driving recommendations).
Sign up for city snow alerts; review your street’s status and snow emergency routes (City of Bismarck).
Consider budget billing or equal-pay plans with your utility; explore LIHEAP if eligible (ND HHS, MDU, Capital Electric Cooperative).
What to Watch
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates seasonal outlooks monthly; watch for shifts in temperature and precipitation odds as we move through December and January. The NWS Bismarck will issue winter storm watches and warnings 24–36 hours ahead of impacts. City of Bismarck snow emergency declarations and parking restrictions will be posted ahead of major plow operations—sign up now so the first big system doesn’t catch you flat-footed.
